Whether or not Democrats choose to move forward with impeachment, they could easily stumble and lose it all
Imagine it is October, 2020 and Democrats are preparing for an election they view as possibly the single most important of their lifetime. This is the election that will define not only the next four years, but the long term direction of our country. The primary fights were bruising, the convention contested, and the party is still recovering while in a furious attempt to unify behind the eventual nominee. There are plenty of voters who feel the system did not give their preferred candidate a fair shake, and are approaching the general election jaded and skeptical. There is plenty we don’t know about the future, but certain outcomes are more likely than others. As of today, 20 candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination, with something like 6 or 7 front runners. Check in on Twitter for a few moments to get a feel for how likely it is for this to combust.
With Democrats on shaky ground with their base during the 2020 election cycle, talk of impeachment could be seen by some as a way to re-focus on what’s at stake. And yet, the two sides of the argument are complicated and strong cases can be made both for and against impeachment. Let’s dive in.
Democratic opponents of impeachment invariably look to history to justify their position. Articles of impeachment were prepared for three presidents, but no president has been removed through this vehicle to date. Andrew Johnson was acquitted in the Senate with the margin of just one vote on three counts of impeachable offenses. Richard Nixon resigned, rather than put the country through the process. And we all know how the efforts to impeach Bill Clinton ended. If Democrats would like to see a Democrat in the White House after 2020, they should focus on the same kitchen table issues like healthcare, as they did successfully in 2018. The voters care about what the party will do for them, not about the unseemly conduct of the current president. Trump’s conduct is already baked in to his evaluation by Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike. The needle is not going to move. And if it does move, it will be because Trump supporters will be put on the defensive, causing them to rally around their preferred candidate.
The flip side of this argument is that Democrats could – and should – point to the Republican party, collectively, as having forsaken their constitutional duty in order to preserve their party. The question has never been “what’s the best way to remove Trump” – it has always been, how to we hold the president of the United States accountable for his actions. Democrats should present themselves as the only alternative that still believes in and upholds our centuries-long institutions; the only party remaining that puts its constitutional duties before political expediency. The Republican fiasco over the Clinton impeachment in large part was owed to the bitterly partisan nature of the investigation, and the underlying crime being a blow job. While the Mueller investigation thankfully found no underlying criminal conspiracy with Russian operatives, the Trump campaign clearly welcomed any and all Russian help with open arms. And that simple fact makes the current president a national security risk, and a risk to the continued functioning of our democracy. If Democrats fail to act, they set a precedent and send the message that this sort of conduct is acceptable. A failure to act is a choice, an act in and of itself. A failure to act ensures that the Chief Executive is for all intents and purposes above the law. A failure to act is the confirmation that we have a constitutional crisis on our hands.
The most difficult political questions have always pitted the morally right thing to do against the politically expedient. Nevertheless, the Democratic theory of the case for political victory goes, at a time when the Republican party has debased itself to the point of becoming little more than a collection of trolls, the country needs an alternative that stands up for moral values. The only complication with this line of reasoning is that the Democratic party would need to find their way to successfully making this case – a tall order for the political party paralyzed by the thought of having to engage in politics.